Andrew Erickson · TopTier Summit 2026

Seven weeks to
BLACK FRIDAY

Before you agree to a launch date, how many units will actually be ready to ship?

About me

Andrew Erickson.

2010Applied math and engineering.
2015Started selling on Etsy and Amazon.
3xThree 7-figure brands, two exits.
2025Titan AI WorkParty Leader.
2026Three first-place AI hackathons.
NowCo-founder of InventoryHero.

Why we sweat this stuff

At InventoryHero, we get nerdy about supply chain.

Today’s roadmap

Six things to leave with.

The countdown

Today is October 8.

days to Black Friday

Nov 27

days to Cyber Monday

Nov 30

days to the last ship day

Dec 22, 2-day ground for Christmas

Before then

The dates that matter.

Deadline	Date	Days	Says who
Create FBA shipments by	Oct 14	6	Our estimate
Peak fees start	Oct 15	7	Amazon
FBT inbound done	Oct 15	7	TikTok
Amazon deals close	Oct 20	12	Amazon
FBA arrives	Oct 21 / 28	13 / 20	Amazon
FBT stops receiving	Nov 27 to Dec 6	50	TikTok
Black Friday	Nov 27	50

Here are the dates in between. This is the slide to take a picture of. Look at the last column, because not every date is the same kind. The Amazon rows come from Amazon's own Holiday 2026 post: peak fulfillment fees start in seven, deals close in twelve, and FBA inventory has to arrive in thirteen or twenty days depending on your splits. Those are arrival dates, not sellable dates. The TikTok rows are what TikTok told FBT sellers in its September newsletter, as reported by seller sites: finish your FBT inbound by October 15, and FBT stops receiving from Black Friday to December 6. It keeps shipping orders, it just stops taking in stock. Check your own Seller Center notices. And the first row is ours, an estimate, not an Amazon date: create your FBA shipments in the next six days. I will show you why in a second. USPS holiday prices also started October 4, if you ship anything yourself. Pause and let them take the picture.

What we observe in accounts we manage

Arrived is not sellable.

Usual vs Q4, created to checked in

Q4 check-in is only about a day slower.

Why checked in is not ready

Most units take a second trip.

Here is why. About four in five of the units you send get moved to another Amazon warehouse right after check-in, closer to customers. Seller Central shows them as reserved, in FC transfer. Customers can sometimes still order them, but they may see a later delivery date. Stock that came from AWD became sellable faster after check-in in our data: half the units in about five days, against about twelve for stock shipped from your own warehouse. That is after check-in only, so do not read it as the whole AWD trip being faster. So, working back from Black Friday. Amazon wants inventory to arrive by October 28. A typical shipment takes about eight days to check in, and in October one in ten takes more than three weeks. So create your FBA shipments by October 14. That is six days from today. It is our planning estimate, built from last October's check-in times and this summer's transfer times, not an Amazon date. We have not measured a holiday season of transfers yet, so if anything it is optimistic.

TikTok FBT check-in · as TikTok told sellers

TikTok closes the dock for Black Friday.

Now TikTok, because if you use Fulfilled by TikTok, your check-in problem looks different. This is what TikTok told FBT sellers in its September newsletter, as reported by seller sites, so confirm it in your own Seller Center. TikTok wants your holiday stock in by October 15. From November 2, check-in at its warehouses can take up to five days instead of the usual turnaround. From November 21, the hubs only take small parcels: no full truckloads, no less-than-truckload pallets, no floor-loaded containers. Then from Black Friday through December 6, the docks close completely. Every person in the building is picking and packing orders. Your orders keep shipping, but a truck that shows up in that window is not unloaded. If you have freight that might land then, have your carrier hold it at their terminal, or you risk a rejected trailer, re-delivery fees and storage charges. Receiving restarts December 7, still slow until December 10, and is back to normal December 11. Business orders and re-measurement come back around December 16.

Observed FBT arrivals

Once it lands, FBT checks in fast.

Check-in, side by side

Your real Black Friday cutoffs.

Here are the two side by side, from the moment your freight arrives. On Amazon, a shipment usually waits about two days on the dock before it is checked in, and then most units spend about twelve more days moving to another Amazon warehouse before they are ready to ship fast. That is why we say create your FBA shipments by October 14. On TikTok, check-in is fast: about a day to the first units sellable and three to five days to fully counted. TikTok's problem is the calendar, not the speed. Truckloads stop on November 21 and the dock closes on Black Friday. So your FBT freight should arrive by about November 20. That is our math. And if that freight is coming from China, add about a month for the ocean, so the label needs to be printed by about mid October. On Amazon, trust checked in. On TikTok, trust units received, not the order status. Miss the TikTok date, and cover TikTok from MCF, from your Amazon stock.

InventoryHero.ai · TopTier Summit 2026

TikTok Viral
Halo Effect

What is the TikTok Viral Halo Effect?

They discover it on TikTok.
Some buy it on Amazon.

Extra Amazon units for every 100 TikTok units

The TikTok viral halo effect.

Here is a question every brand in this room asks: if a video goes viral on TikTok, does Amazon blow up too? Some buyers see the video and go find the product on Amazon. That is the TikTok viral halo effect, and we measured it in our data, February to September, against each product's normal daily sales. A short viral spike added about eight extra Amazon units for planning, the upper end of the observed four-to-eight range, for every hundred TikTok units. It shows up on Amazon the same day, and it fades within two to four days. On a newer product with low Amazon sales, it was up to about twenty per hundred. Steady TikTok volume over three weeks or more moved Amazon the most, twenty to twenty-five per hundred. And one in four viral spikes produced no Amazon lift at all. Two honest caveats: treat these as an early benchmark, not a rule, because it varies by product and by video. And it shows Amazon rising at the same time as TikTok. It does not rule out ads, deals or seasonal demand on the same days.

Check 2 · our gift set, 1,000 extra TikTok units

Plan TikTok stock on its own.

Back to our gift set. Three creator posts add about a thousand TikTok units in Black Friday week. What does Amazon do? Expect about eighty extra Amazon units for planning, mostly in the first two to four days. Best case, on a newer product or a run that lasts weeks, about two hundred. Worst case, none. So four things for your inventory. One, plan TikTok inventory on its own. A viral spike barely changes Amazon demand, so do not double your Amazon order because a video took off. Two, watch for steady TikTok volume, not single spikes. Three or more weeks of elevated TikTok sales is when Amazon demand really moves, and that is the time to raise your Amazon restock. Three, expect it the same day. If you only look at a weekly report, by the time you see the halo it is already over. And four, measure it for your own products. It varies by product and by video. After every big TikTok moment, count the extra Amazon units per hundred TikTok units, and you will have your own benchmark by Christmas.

Listings and ads

Never pay to advertise a stockout.

InventoryHero.ai · TopTier Summit 2026

Thinking
beyond Q4

Chinese New Year is Feb 6, 2027

Your Chinese New Year PO is due by Thanksgiving.

Your January planning starts now, because of Chinese New Year. It is February 6, 2027. My planning assumption: nothing gets produced in Asia from January 25 to the end of February. Factories wind down before the holiday and workers come back slowly after it. So your last shipment needs to be done and out by January 25. Work back from that. If your factory needs sixty days of production, the purchase order goes in by November 26, which is Thanksgiving Day. If it needs thirty days, December 26. And you also need your next order planned and placed before Chinese New Year, so your factory can start production on it the day it reopens, around March 1. If you wait until March to order, your spring stock lands in May. These dates are my planning assumptions, not a factory's promise. Ask your own factory for its closure dates.

January returns

Returnuary.

TikTok reimbursements

TikTok may owe you money.

Our model, money you already earned

About 1% of your FBT sales.

TikTok's 2026 FBT claim rules

Eight claims, eight clocks.

Here are all eight, each with its own clock. One: units missing from a shipment you sent to TikTok. You cannot file before day 14, and you have until day 180 after receiving. It is probably the biggest one. Two: stock lost or damaged inside a TikTok warehouse, 60 days from the adjustment, and the proof is TikTok's inventory ledger. Three: buyer orders lost, damaged or wrong, 60 days, and TikTok often pays these on its own. Four: a removal that came back short, 60 days from handover, so count and photograph every removal when it arrives. Five: a return TikTok refunded but never put back in your stock, treated as 60 days. Six: fees charged wrong, no published deadline, so file fast. Seven: penalty appeals, 30 days, then 15 more for a second appeal, and these mostly win back visibility, not cash. Eight: if you ship orders yourself on TikTok labels and one gets lost, 90 days. These windows are TikTok's 2026 FBT claim rules. Check them in Seller Center, they change.

Why TikTok says no

Most claims die on paperwork.

How InventoryHero does it

We find it. You file it.

Where AI fits

AI makes the list. You make the call.

Thank you, TopTier