Build a Q4 plan that survives being wrong.
Your calendar does not have to be.
Andrew Erickson.
Delivered is not sellable.
| Path | Off-peak | Peak, Oct to Dec |
|---|---|---|
| FBA, delivered to FC → sellable | 3 to 7 days | 7 to 21 days, plan 14 |
| AWD, delivered → received | 3 to 7 days | 5 to 10 days |
| AWD → FBA replenishment | 7 to 14 days | 10 to 14 days |
| AWD total, delivered → sellable at FBA | ~2 weeks | ~3 to 4 weeks |
AWD is slower end to end, but you control when the clock starts. AWD is a lever. FBA direct is a bet.
Q4 check-in takes three times as long.
Days from first check-in scan until 95% of a shipment's units are sellable, 95th percentile. Typical case is about one day all year. The tail is what breaks plans: August 4 days, December 12. At p99, December is 70.
Three sellable-by dates.
| Event | When it runs | Sellable by |
|---|---|---|
| Prime Big Deal Days | Early October 2026 | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Black Friday & Cyber Monday | Nov 27 to Nov 30 | Nov 6, 2026 |
| Christmas | Dec 25 | Dec 4, 2026 |
Sellable means checked in and buyable, not shipped, not delivered. Every date on this slide already has the check-in leg baked in.
Sellable is 88 days after the PO. Or 118.
| Leg | Days | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Production | 30 or 60 | 30 / 60 |
| Cargo ready to vessel departs | 7 | 37 / 67 |
| On the water | 30 | 67 / 97 |
| Port, drayage, FC door | 7 | 74 / 104 |
| Delivered to sellable, peak check-in | 14 | 88 / 118 |
Nothing here is aggressive. This is the good version, with no delays.
Today is August 27.
| Milestone | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Sellable at FBA | Nov 6, 2026 | |
| Delivered to FC | Oct 23, 2026 | |
| Out of port | Oct 20, 2026 | |
| Vessel arrives | Oct 16, 2026 | |
| Vessel departs China | Sep 16, 2026 | 3 weeks out |
| Cargo ready | Sep 9, 2026 | 2 weeks out |
| PO placed, 30-day production | Aug 10, 2026 | 17 days ago |
| PO placed, 60-day production | Jul 11, 2026 | 47 days ago |
If you are planning Black Friday inventory today, the plan is already wrong, and no amount of forecasting fixes it. Everything left is triage, not a plan.
The holiday is a week. The blackout is six.
Your Q1 PO is due this quarter.
| Production time | Safe PO date | Cargo ready |
|---|---|---|
| 60 days | Nov 10, 2026 | Jan 9, 2027 |
| 30 days | Dec 10, 2026 | Jan 9, 2027 |
The last realistic cargo-ready date is about January 22. Ports are jammed for two weeks before that, so aim for January 9 and keep the difference as buffer.
Your Q4 order was never a Q4 order.
Cargo ready Jan 9
Factory restarts mid-March
Whatever you have on hand at New Year has to carry you to late March. Miss the pre-CNY window and it has to carry you to late May.
Two numbers decide everything.
- 1Days of cover. Units on hand divided by daily velocity.
- 2Days to resupply. Days until your next shipment is sellable, not shipped.
If cover is less than resupply, you are going to zero. Slow down now, on purpose.
Cut ads, or raise price.
Target velocity = on hand / days to resupply Slowdown needed = 1 - (target / current) PPC cut needed = slowdown / PPC share
| On hand | 400 units |
| Selling | 12 per day |
| Cover | 33 days |
| Next shipment sellable | 60 days |
| Target velocity | 6.7 per day |
| Slowdown needed | 44% |
| PPC drives | 50% of units |
| PPC cut needed | 89% |
Above 100% and ads alone cannot save it, so you raise price too. Here 89% leaves no headroom: cut bids hard and raise price.
Everything from this talk, free.
- 1The PPC throttle skill file. It runs the math on slide 12 for you.
- 2This entire slide deck, dates and all.
- 3Build your Q1 reverse calendar today, on a free trial.
