Andrew Erickson · InventoryHero
Build a Q4 plan that survives being wrong.
Your forecast will be wrong.
Your plan does not have to break.
Your plan does not have to break.
InventoryHero
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About me
Andrew Erickson.
2015
Started
Selling on Amazon.
3x
Founder
Three 7-figure Amazon brands.
2x
Exits
Both sold.
Now
InventoryHero
Running my brands on AI agents.
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Start here
Amazon published your deadline before it published the event.
Prime Big Deal Days inventory is due September 2 to September 16, depending on
your path. Deals close September 8. Amazon still has not confirmed what day the
event actually runs.
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Black Friday & Cyber Monday 2026
Your Q4 ends in October.
| Arrive by | Path | What it costs you |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | AWD | Earliest date, most flexibility later |
| Oct 21 | FBA, minimal splits | You pick the placement, you pay for it |
| Oct 28 | FBA, Amazon-optimized splits | One week more runway, Amazon picks |
Arrive means received and checked in, not shipped. Black Friday is November 27, so your real deadline is five weeks earlier. From today, the tightest of these is seven weeks out.
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Two ways to be wrong
They do not cost the same.
Too much
Visible
Cash stuck in boxes. Peak storage. An aged-inventory surcharge with your name on it. Every number shows up on a report.
Too little
Invisible
Sales you already earned and never collected. Amazon does not invoice you for it. Nothing on any report says you lost it.
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The whole talk in one idea
Pick the mistake you can recover from.
Over on something that moves
→
A cash-flow problem. Painful, usually survivable.
Over on a slow mover
→
Storage, then the aged surcharge. Much less survivable.
Out of stock on your bestseller
→
A rank problem. You pay for it in January.
Accuracy is not the goal. Recoverability is.
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Where the damage concentrates
Your bestseller is your biggest risk.
- 1It is the SKU your forecast is most confident about, which is exactly why nobody buffers it.
- 2It funds everything else. Its stockout is not one SKU down, it is your ad budget down.
- 3So it gets the widest buffer and the earliest order-by date. Not the tightest.
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Amazon Warehousing & Distribution · the lever most sellers skip
Stage it without committing it.
- 01Inventory sitting in AWD does not count against your FBA capacity limit until it moves to a fulfillment center.
- 02With auto-replenish on, off-peak storage rates hold at AWD through October 31, after peak fulfillment fees have already started.
- 03AWD pricing covers FBA inbound placement, no separate charge.
Being wrong is cheaper when the inventory is near Amazon but not inside it. Not set up yet? Start today, not in October.
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The window nobody reads to the end
Peak fees run to January 14.
Oct 15, 2026
→
Holiday peak fulfillment fees begin
Jan 14, 2027
→
They end. Not December 31.
The units you dump in January still pay peak. Size Q4 to sell through by year end, not to survive it.
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Chinese New Year · February 6, 2027
The holiday is a week. The disruption is a month.
Mid-January · factories wind down
↓
Early February · lines stop
↓
Late February into March · slow, error-prone ramp
Q4 drains the stock you need to replace, and the factory closes right after. Commit Q1 POs by end of November, while you are still selling.
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Where AI actually helps
From warnings to approved decisions.
"You are low on Widget A."
→
"Order 2,400 by today. Approve?"
A dashboard to interpret
→
A pre-filled PO to approve
A plan you rebuild each month
→
A plan that updates itself
The model watches and drafts. You approve.
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Live demo
Stockout warning to supplier PO, in one conversation.
- 1"What am I about to run out of?"
- 2"Cover me through Q4."
- 3"Create the PO and draft the supplier email."
- 3 minNot three hours.
- 4systems, one chat. The agent acts, you approve.
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Thanks for having me
Everything from this talk, free.
- 1The free skill file that runs your reorder dates.
- 2This entire slide deck.
- 3Build your whole Q4 plan today, on a free trial.
SCAN & DROP YOUR EMAIL
inventoryhero.ai/ecomcy
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