Andrew Erickson · InventoryHero

The AI Inventory Workflow.

What to order.
When to order.
How to avoid Q4 stockouts.
InventoryHero
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About me

Andrew Erickson.

  • 2015Started selling on Amazon.
  • 3xFounder of three 7-figure Amazon brands.
  • 2xSuccessful exits.
  • NowBuilding InventoryHero, and running my brands on AI agents.
InventoryHero
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The uncomfortable truth

Your Q4 stockout is usually decided by July.

By September it is already too late. The order was due months ago.

InventoryHero
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The whole talk in one line

From forecast to a human-approved PO.

01
Forecast
How much will actually sell.
02
What & how much
Quantity, minus what is already inbound.
03
When
The order-by date on a calendar.
04
Approve
You approve. The agent does the rest.
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What to order · the atom

It all starts with sales velocity.

# units you actually sell per day
ADD = units_sold / days_in_window

# windows that match the SKU
evergreen  30-60 days
trending   14 days
seasonal   same period last year
  • !Exclude stockout days, or you under-forecast.
  • !Strip Prime Day / BFCM spikes.
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Seasonality · triangulate

Three signals tell you the real curve.

What you did
History
Same period last year, cleaned for stockouts.
What the category does
Competitors
The true peak, not just the peak you captured.
What is about to happen
Keywords
Search demand leads sales by weeks.
Rule of thumb
More than 15% of your year in one month means you are a seasonal business. A flat business does 8.3% a month, so 15% is roughly a double month.
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When to reorder

Turn the trigger into a date.

# reorder point
ROP = (ADD × lead_time) + safety_stock

# worked: 25/day, 75-day lead,
# 14-day buffer
ROP = (25 × 75) + 350 = 2,225 units
  • →Convert it to an order-by date on the calendar.
  • ≠Stock health is not order urgency. A SKU can look fine and still be "order today."
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How much

Order for the gap, buffer for variability.

order_qty = ADD × (lead_time
            + reorder_cycle
            + safety_days)
          − (on_hand + inbound)

# safety stock buffers spikes in
# BOTH demand and lead time
The punchline
Late suppliers hurt you more than noisy demand. Reliability beats a better forecast.
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The Q4 2026 calendar

The dates that move your order-by.

Date (2026)EventWhy it matters
~Oct 6-14Prime Big Deal DaysThe October "second Prime Day" (est.)
~Oct 19-23Amazon inbound cutoffMust ARRIVE by this date (2026 est.)
Nov 27Black FridayEarly Thanksgiving = compressed runway
Nov 30Cyber MondayPeak of peak

Note: the summer Prime Day was June 23-26, not July. Amazon's exact 2026 cutoff is not published yet.

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Count backward from the peak

Build in Q2/Q3. Lean in Q4.

Peak: Black Friday, Nov 27
− receiving buffer (3-4 wks in Q4)
Arrive at Amazon by ~Oct 20
− ocean transit + production
Order by Aug / early Sept
  • 3×Q4 storage vs off-peak.
  • 181Days until the aged-inventory surcharge starts.
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Chinese New Year · the double squeeze

Q4 empties your shelves while the factory goes dark.

Squeeze 1 · Nov-Dec
You sell down
Q4 drains the inventory you need to replace.
Squeeze 2 · Feb 6, 2027
Factories close
2-4 weeks dark, then a slow, error-prone ramp.
The move
Commit your Q1 and spring PO by mid-December, before Q4 selling even ends. Valentine's demand peaks during the blackout.
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Total lead time · factory to shelf

Plan for 12 to 14 weeks.

Production4-6 weeks
Ocean (West Coast)15-25 days
Drayage + prep3-7 days
Amazon check-in6-7d median, tail to 30+
  • 62%On-time ocean reliability. Plan a range, not a date.
  • AirThe emergency lever: ~half the time, 4-8× the cost.
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Where AI actually helps

From warnings to approved decisions.

"You are low on Widget A."
→
"Order 2,400 by today. Approve?"
A dashboard to interpret
→
A pre-filled PO to approve
You forgot the units inbound
→
Inbound already netted out

Honest version: hybrid beats pure AI. The model computes and drafts. You approve.

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Live demo

From stockout warning to supplier PO, in one conversation.

26 ASINs · binders + deck boxes
Supplier PYP · 55-75 day lead times
Argo · in a Slack thread
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Demo · ask it anything

Inventory, then a stockout plan.

"How much do I have right now?"
387 fulfillable · 167 incoming · 526 off-site at 3PL.
Flags 17 ASINs at zero.
"Prevent stockouts for 6 months?"
3 critical SKUs past their order-by date (182 units).
2 dead listings · 17 ASINs to triage before Q4.
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Demo · one instruction

"Create the PO and draft the email."

You, in Slack:
"Skip the 1-unit product,
 order 50 each of the other two,
 call it 'Slack Demo',
 export a PDF, draft the email."
  • 1Looks up supplier PYP.
  • 2Creates PO #172, 100 units.
  • 3Renders a branded PDF.
  • 4Saves a Gmail draft, PDF attached.
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The payoff

3 minutes,
not 3 hours.

Four systems, one chat: inventory, PO, document, email. The agent acts. You approve.

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The loop that never stops

Run the rhythm.

  • SpringForecast Q4 and lock long-lead POs.
  • SummerBuild at 3PL / AWD while storage is cheap.
  • FallWave inventory into FBA before the cutoff.
  • Q4Sell, replenish, and reorder for spring by mid-December.

Let InventoryHero watch the loop and hand you the POs.

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Thanks for coming

Everything from this talk, free.

  • 1The free skill file that runs the reorder math.
  • 2This entire slide deck.
  • 3Do your whole Q4 plan today, on a free trial.
Scan to get the talk resources at inventoryhero.ai/7FSS12
SCAN & DROP YOUR EMAIL
inventoryhero.ai/7FSS12
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