Andrew Erickson · InventoryHero

The AI Inventory Workflow.

What to order.
When to order.
How to avoid Q4 stockouts.

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About me

Andrew Erickson.

2015Started selling on Etsy and Amazon.
3xFounder of three 7-figure Amazon brands.
2021First 7-figure exit, built on demand forecasting.
100+Custom products launched and planned.
NowBuilding InventoryHero, running brands on AI agents.

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And just recently

I sold my brand, Montessori & Me.

A fun exit, built on the exact demand forecasting and supply-chain discipline in this talk.

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Andrew and his kids celebrating the sale of Montessori & Me

My story

From a $418K mistake to a 7-figure exit.

1Why I'm passionate about inventory management.
2Year 3: $1M in sales, and I still had a day job.
3I kept struggling with forecasting and stockouts.
4I did the math and found I'd lost $418K.
5So I quit my day job to optimize the business.
6Three years later, a 7-figure exit.

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What we will cover

The workflow.

01The fundamentals: velocity, cover, and the reorder date.
02The Q4 calendar and the dates that move your order-by.
03Supply-chain timing, from the factory to the shelf.
04The AI agent that runs the whole loop for you.

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Where this is going

AI turns this workflow into one call: approve or reject.

You will watch an agent run a real stockout-to-PO in one chat. First, the fundamentals it runs on.

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Part 1

The fundamentals.

Velocity, days of cover, and the reorder date.

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Start here

Sales velocity is just units sold per day.

velocity = units_sold / days

Everything else in the workflow is built on this one number.

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When do I run out?

Days of inventory tells you your stockout date.

days_of_inventory =
   current_inventory / velocity

# e.g. 900 units / 30 a day
#    = 30 days until zero

Count the days forward. When it drops below your lead time, you are already late.

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Count everything you own

"Current inventory" is more than what is fulfillable.

Fulfillable

FC transfer

Checking in

AWD

3PL

Miss the units on a boat or at your 3PL and you double-order. Add all five buckets.

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A good velocity needs a good window

Find a stretch where sales are flat.

2-3Months of steady, consistent sales.
StripPrime Day, BFCM, and stockout days.

Q4 planning baseline

Most sellers use March through June as the flat baseline for the Q4 forecast.

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The basic version

Baseline cover is the easy part.

days_of_cover =
   current_inventory / baseline_velocity

Good enough for an evergreen SKU. But most of us sell something that spikes.

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Are you even seasonal?

15% of your year in one month.

A flat business does 8.3% a month. So 15% is roughly a double month, and that makes you seasonal.

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The mindset shift

Plan on the sales you will make, not the ones you did.

Days of cover is a forecast of the future, not a report on the past.

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Seasonality · triangulate

Three signals tell you the real curve.

What you did

History

Same period last year, cleaned for stockouts.

What the category does

Competitors

The true peak, not just the peak you captured.

What is about to happen

Keyword demand

Search demand leads sales by weeks.

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The other half of the reorder date

Lead time is three stacked delays.

Manufacturing

PO to goods ready to ship.

Transportation

Factory to the US port and inland.

Buffer

Port to warehouse, then warehouse to the fulfillment center.

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The data behind this talk

12,000+ FBA shipments, measured.

Amazon says

up to 30 days

to become fulfillable.

Median shipment

6-7 days

to fully check in.

But 1 in 5

30+ days

The tail breaks restock plans.

Aggregated across 29 real sellers. Check-in isn't slow, it's ragged: Q4 runs ~10-20% slower, not 2x. Plan for the tail, not the average.

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Put it together

The reorder date.

# reorder when cover runs down
# to your lead time
reorder_point = (velocity × lead_time_days)
              + safety_stock_units

# read it as a calendar date
order_by = today
   + (days_of_cover − lead_time_days)

→A date on the calendar, not a vague "getting low."
≠Stock health is not order urgency.

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How much

Order for the gap, buffer for variability.

order_qty = velocity × (lead_time_days
            + reorder_cycle_days
            + safety_days)
          − (on_hand + inbound)

The punchline

Late suppliers hurt you more than noisy demand. Reliability beats a better forecast.

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When MOQ is bigger than demand

Do not let a discount bury your cash.

Option A

Negotiate

Longer commit for a lower MOQ.

Option B

Second source

A supplier whose MOQ fits.

Option C

Skip it

Walking away is a valid answer.

Option D

Buy it

Only if holding cost beats the discount.

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Part 2

The Q4 calendar.

The dates that decide your order-by.

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The Q4 2026 calendar

The dates that move your order-by.

Date (2026)	Event	Why it matters
~Oct 6-14	Prime Big Deal Days	The October "second Prime Day" (est.)
~Oct 19-23	FBA arrival, recommended	Amazon's holiday guideline, not one hard cutoff (est.)
Nov 27	Black Friday	Early Thanksgiving = compressed runway
Nov 30	Cyber Monday	Peak of peak
~Dec 20-21	Last Prime shipping	Latest order to arrive by Christmas Eve (est.)

Send AWD and 3PL stock earlier; the FBA date is a recommended window, not a single hard deadline. 2026 dates not yet published by Amazon.

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The guideline creeps earlier

Amazon's holiday arrival date, year over year.

Year	Black Friday arrival guideline
2022	Nov 2
2023	Oct 26
2024	Oct 19
2025	Oct 20 / Oct 30 (two-tier)
2026	~Oct 19-23 (estimate)

Plan to the earlier end because Thanksgiving is early.

Source: Amazon seller holiday announcements, 2022-2025.

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Count backward from the peak

Your order-by date is in early August.

Peak: Black Friday, Nov 27

− receiving buffer (3-4 wks in Q4)

Arrive at Amazon by ~Oct 20

− transit + production

Order by Aug / early Sept

Q2Forecast demand and lock your long-lead POs.
AugPlace the Q4 order. This is the deadline.

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The Q4 build calendar

Build in Q2/Q3. Lean in Q4.

Window	Move
Mar-May	Forecast Q4, lock long-lead POs
Jun-Aug	Land inventory at AWD / 3PL while storage is cheap
Late Aug-Sep	First FBA inbound wave
October	Second wave, top up before the guideline date
November	Replenish from AWD / 3PL, not from your supplier
Dec-Jan	Run it down, then manage returns

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Why Q4 timing is expensive

Every extra unit costs more in Q4.

Peak storage

~3× in Q4

Oct-Dec storage runs roughly triple the off-peak rate. Every unit you overstock costs 3x to hold.

So plan to

Run it lean

Size Q4 to sell through by year-end, not to sit in a fulfillment center at peak rates.

Source: Amazon fee schedule (mid-2026). Verify current rates in Seller Central before quoting exact dollars.

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The Dec-Jan tail

January returns, minus the hype.

Returnuary (measured)

~1.35×

January returns run about 1.35x baseline. The "25-50%" horror stories are ~1 SKU in 25.

Clear the tail

Sell it down

Discount, then remove, liquidate, or donate the Q4 leftovers to free cash for Q1.

Source: InventoryHero, 509 SKUs across 27 sellers, January 2026 vs. May-Nov 2025 baseline.

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Part 3

Factory to shelf.

The timing that decides whether Q4 stock lands in time.

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Chinese New Year · the double squeeze

Q4 empties your shelves as the factory goes dark.

Squeeze 1 · Nov-Dec

You sell down

Q4 drains the inventory you need to replace.

Squeeze 2 · Feb 6, 2027

Factories close

2-4 weeks dark, then a slow, error-prone ramp.

The move

Commit your Q1 and spring PO by the end of November, before Q4 selling even ends.

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What "closed" really means

The holiday is a week. The disruption is a month.

BeforeA mad dash to ship. Workers leave early, quality dips.
2-4 wksReal closure, well beyond the 7-day statutory holiday.
AfterUp to a third of workers do not return. Slow ramp.
FreightBook ocean 3-4 weeks ahead. Rates spike from mid-December.

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Total lead time · factory to shelf

~12-14 weeks, buffer included.

Production (sellers plan)	~45 days
Ocean (West Coast)	~25 days
Drayage + prep	3-7 days
Amazon check-in	6-7d median (tail 30+)
Buffer for variance	+1-2 weeks
Plan total, West Coast	~12-14 weeks

ECEast-coast ocean adds ~2 weeks on top.
AirThe emergency lever: ~half the time, 4-8× the cost.

Production: 85 supplier profiles (InventoryHero, self-reported). Check-in: 12,246 shipments. Ocean/prep: third-party ranges.

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Part 4

The agent that runs it.

From low-stock warnings to human-approved decisions.

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Where AI actually helps

From warnings to approved decisions.

"You are low on Widget A."

→

"Order 2,400 by today. Approve?"

A dashboard to interpret

→

A pre-filled PO to approve

You forgot the units inbound

→

Inbound already netted out

Honest version: hybrid beats pure AI. The model computes and drafts. You approve.

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The limits your agent plans around

Two constraints the agent has to respect.

Restock limits

~5 months

Amazon caps how much you can send. ASIN-level caps bite even when the account looks fine.

AWD / 3PL

Relief valve

Off-Amazon buffer that does not count against FBA restock limits, with no Q4 storage premium.

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Live demo

From stockout warning to supplier PO, in one conversation.

26 ASINs · binders + deck boxes

Supplier PYP · 55-75 day lead times

Argo · in a Slack thread

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Demo · step 1

"How much inventory do I have right now?"

Fulfillable

387

9 active ASINs

Incoming

167

on the way

Off-site

526

at the 3PL

Argo flags

17 ASINs sitting at zero.

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Demo · step 2

"Prevent stockouts for the next 6 months."

Order today

3 SKUs

Order-by dates already passed. 182 units.

Suppressed

2 listings

One out of stock 20 of the last 30 days.

Triage

17 dead

ASINs to clear before Q4.

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Demo · step 3

"Create the PO and draft the email."

You, in Slack:
"Suggest how many units we
 should order from ABC supplier.
 Create a purchase order and
 email it to them."

1Suggests the right order quantity.
2Creates the purchase order.
3Renders a clean, branded PDF.
4Emails it to the supplier.

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The payoff

3 minutes,
not 3 hours.

Four systems, one chat: inventory, PO, document, email. The agent acts. You approve.

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The loop that never stops

Run the rhythm.

SpringForecast Q4 and lock long-lead POs.
SummerBuild at 3PL / AWD while storage is cheap.
FallWave inventory into FBA before the guideline date.
Q4Sell, replenish, and reorder for spring by end of November.

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Thanks for coming

Everything from this talk, free.

1The free skill file that runs the reorder math.
2This entire slide deck.
3Do your whole Q4 plan today, on a free trial.

SCAN & DROP YOUR EMAIL

inventoryhero.ai/7FSS12

InventoryHero

The AI Inventory Workflow.

Andrew Erickson.

I sold my brand, Montessori & Me.

From a $418K mistake to a 7-figure exit.

The workflow.

AI turns this workflow into one call: approve or reject.

The fundamentals.

Sales velocity is just units sold per day.

Days of inventory tells you your stockout date.

"Current inventory" is more than what is fulfillable.

Find a stretch where sales are flat.

Baseline cover is the easy part.

15% of your year in one month.

Plan on the sales you will make, not the ones you did.

Three signals tell you the real curve.

Lead time is three stacked delays.

12,000+ FBA shipments, measured.

The reorder date.

Order for the gap, buffer for variability.

Do not let a discount bury your cash.

The Q4 calendar.

The dates that move your order-by.

Amazon's holiday arrival date, year over year.

Your order-by date is in early August.

Build in Q2/Q3. Lean in Q4.

Every extra unit costs more in Q4.

January returns, minus the hype.

Factory to shelf.

Q4 empties your shelves as the factory goes dark.

The holiday is a week. The disruption is a month.

~12-14 weeks, buffer included.

The agent that runs it.

From warnings to approved decisions.

Two constraints the agent has to respect.

From stockout warning to supplier PO, in one conversation.

"How much inventory do I have right now?"

"Prevent stockouts for the next 6 months."

"Create the PO and draft the email."

3 minutes,not 3 hours.

Run the rhythm.

Everything from this talk, free.

3 minutes,
not 3 hours.